| http://www.nola.com/outdoors/index.ssf/2011/03/signs_point_to_average_speckle.html And now the forecast local anglers have been yearning for: the official prediction for speckled trout and redfish seasons. Drum roll, please. Bring up the spotlight on Jason Adriance, finfish program manager at the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries. Now, hit the cymbals, kill the drums and cue the biologist: "About average," said Adriance. Average? Not exactly news you trumpet in headlines. Talk about a waste of drums and cymbals. Are we getting shock and awww? Not even close, Adriance said. "You've got to remember that average in Louisiana would be better-than-average anywhere else -- so average here is good news," he said.  One biologist predicts an 'about average' speckled trout season this year, but he quickly points out an average season in southeast Louisiana is 'better-than-average anywhere else.'How good is our average? Last year, our speckled trout catch was "only" 7 million, down from the 10.8 million average of the previous five years. But that was achieved even though much of the southeastern coast, the part containing the most productive estuaries in the state, was closed for months after the Deepwater Horizon blew. Our redfish catch last year improved from the 2.36 million five-year average to 2.66 million. That average was helped along by the record 2006 season in which Louisiana anglers took home 13.6 million specks, known as the "post-Katrina effect." "Katrina pushed saltwater deep into the estuaries, and that was followed by a drought and mild winter, so we had ideal conditions for survival (of the spawning class)," Adriance said. "That showed up the next year, when we were just flooded with all those young trout entering the fishery. We haven't seen anything like that since then, but we're still looking great compared to everywhere else." Adriance would not go out on the limb and predict more trophy specks this season, six years removed from that huge spawning class. Statistically, that kind of prediction would seem reasonable; a larger total pool of fish should produce a larger number of those rare trophy fish. But Adriance said that scenario doesn't always play out. "Too many variables," he said. "You basically have 100 percent national mortality on each spawning class within six years. And that doesn't include unusual environmental events. So you can't really predict more fish means more (trophy) trout." But the good news is that Adriance and his colleagues at Wildlife and Fisheries see no reason for the average fishing not to continue in our peak coastal season, May through September. Last year, that meant two specks per trip, with the fish averaging about 14.2 inches and 1.08 pounds. Redfish fishers averaged about one fish per trip, and that fish averaged about 20 inches. That resource continues to hum along in great health under the joint state and federal management plans that protect the inshore juvenile population as well as the offshore spawners. The current escapement rate (the percentage of juveniles that live to join the spawners) is about 50 percent, Adriance said -- well above the goal of 30 percent. "There's no reason for that to change, based on our sampling," he said. "So I'd say we should have another average Louisiana season on red fish, too." That rosy forecast is based on the samples the agency monthly collects with nets, checking the progress of the previous spawning class into the young-of-the-year, called "recruitment" to the fishery, as well as the health of the older fish. Of course, the Deepwater Horizon made those results even more interesting this year. If the 200 million gallons of crude oil and dispersant that BP dumped into the Gulf just off these estuaries was going to visibly affect the finned residents, that sampling program would probably produce the first evidence. So far everything looks normal, Adriance said. Recruitment looks about average, which would indicate last year's speck spawning season, which peaked during the spill, wasn't reduced by the hydrocarbons or by the heavy amounts of fresh water the state pumped into the system to fight the oil. And the number of adult fish appears to be about average through the various age groups as well, indicating there has been no significant mortality from hydrocarbon contamination in the food chain. Finally, the sampling has not turned up only the average number of physical abnormalities in either speckled trout or redfish. "Right now, everything looks about the same," Adriance said. The emphasis should be on "right now." Wildlife and Fisheries has increased its fisheries sampling frequency from several a month to about 400 a month for key estuarine and offshore marine species, using a grant from BP to keep a much closer watch for any long-term impact. The state Department of Health, which collects oyster samples, is handling the laboratory testing of all samples to ensure they meet federal human consumption safety guidelines. Of course, that forecast is subject to the usual caveats: Weather and river stages. No one can predict how much wind or storms we'll get, but it looks like we'll be having a pretty high river -- and soon. Those heavy winter snows in the Mississippi and Ohio drainages are being followed by heavy rain, which will result in a 14.5-foot river stage later this month, according to federal agencies. High rivers can create low salinities in the estuaries, pushing speckled trout out of traditional spring and summer spawning locations and reducing food supply. But we had high rivers last year -- as well as the worst oil spill in U.S. history -- and still managed an average Louisiana season. And any local angler knows what that means. ================================================ Fishing reduces stress and gives you a break from our modern world where everything is going a million miles per hour 73 Check & Clear 6 LOC: 38-54-14.60N / 097-14-09.07W |
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